I told myself to stay away from this.
Honestly, I couldn’t see a good reason to enter into the debate, it felt negative and bleugh and whats-the-point, so we just discussed it a bit internally, did a bit of low-level ranting, figured let sleeping dogs lie, and got on with the business implications on the quiet.
But having just read Ryan’s post about what Jetpack really means to WordPress, as a whole I figured sod it, if he can do it (or at least hint at it) so can I.
And as reflecting on this stuff just so happens to be good business (it never hurts to think out loud) even though I imagine this’ll be studiously ignored by the powers that be, it might make for a good presentation if nothing else… and you won’t be able to tell me you haven’t been warned.
So, here’s what I’m gonna cover in this post:
- What is, and isn’t, in Jetpack and why
- ‘The Akismet code’ and how that indicates what’s to come
- Which means they are going to do what???
- And the resultant future of WordPress
So, are you sitting comfortably? Good, then let’s begin :)
First up, let’s establish where everyone stands
A personal disclaimer, I own and operate Incsub, WPMU DEV, WPMU.org (this site), WP Plugins, WP.MU, BuddyDress and Edublogs - so I’m not without my own vested interests.
A disclaimer on behalf of Automattic, they have raised over $30,000,000 in venture capital and thus, naturally, are a profit orientated organization, not that there’s anything wrong with that… but remember it all the same :)
So, great name, but what’s really in a Jetpack?
Well, let’s put it simply, Jetpack is a bundle of Automattic products.
I’m gonna stick my neck out here and bundle them into three separate piles:
Not that important to Automattic – Stats, Twitter Widgets, LaTeX, Shortcodes
Very important to Automattic – Gravatar Hovercards, Shortlinks, Sharedaddy & After the Deadline
Most important to Automattic – Nothing yet…
Why are these things very important? Well, put simply, the more usage that these products get, the more value they have, for example:
- Gravatars – acquiring this was a truly epic move, that probably cost ‘em nothing and has left them with an incredible penetration into online ID, probably only bettered by Facebook (who are coming after them a bit now, but I reckon gravatars are here to stay)
- Shortlinks – don’t ask me why these are so important (I’m so not up on the valley :) but clearly they are… and I’ve been pretty surprised at how little of a commotion the inclusion of wp.mu in the 3.1 admin bar has raised… subtle one guys.
- Sharedaddy - much the same as the above
- After the Deadline – I figured they just bought this as better grammar etc. makes for better Google refs which =s more money via wp.com, but clearly there’s a wider purpose… but if your aim is to own the Microsoft Word of the web, then I guess it gets framed in a whole different way
But what’s with the empty ‘most important‘ pile, well to explain that we need to do a bit of detective work….
The Akismet Code
One of the funnest things about watching the WordPress development space is the constant dance around the ‘community’ and open source principles behind the project and the fundamentally commercial (OK, it’s not all commercial, Matt is more about being loved and fawned over ;) prerogatives of the people behind it.
And Akismet has been a classic for that, as illustrated by this trac ticket from sc0ttkclark just 3 days ago entitled ‘Excluding Akismet from Future WordPress Releases‘ where Scott argues in a kind of ‘please don’t hit me for saying this’ way for the removal of Akismet from the WordPress core as:
“Since Akismet now charges for access, or solicits fees by default for Personal website activations [and] Since the plugin directory itself has officially been described (and in practice) to have a restriction that explicitly prohibits functionality be disabled from a plugin behind a Paywall, why wouldn’t that apply in this case?”
And of course, you’d have to agree, but the real, serious, inyourface deal isn’t some big arse debate, it’s that Automattic agrees!!!
Yeh, you heard me right, they are cool with that, says Nacin:
“I’m for the eventual unbundling of Akismet”
And 2 months prior:
“We will hopefully unbundle for 3.2.”
And we all know and love Nacin, but let’s face it he’s Matt’s personal developer for a full time job, you don’t get much closer to the core than that.
So why the freak would they unbundle Akismet?
Well that’s elementary dear Watson, because it’ll go straight into Jetpack, together with a whole heap of other paid for services, which *will* be bundled with installs at Bluehost, DreamHost, Go Daddy, HostGator, Media Temple, and Network Solutions as a start… I wonder what % of the self-hosted WP market that is?
[amusingly, Automattic with the WP phone home capacity could tell us that... I'm gonna guess at 75%]
No need to stress about bundling with the core, when you’re just bundling it at the source (but guys, do you ever wonder how much easier shot might have been for ya if it wasn’t for this whole community thing ;)
This bunch of rather lame extras is just the soft end of the wedge.
So, this is how they heavily monetize 75%+ of the self-hosted WordPress blogs yeh? Wow.
Pretty much.
And run it past me again, how are they are going to do that?
Well it’s simple:
- Jetpack gets bundled with the vast majority of installations, and of course promoted heavily throughout wp.org, your local install and everywhere else
- Jetpack then simply adds (this is that ‘most important’ pile):
- Akismet (like we discussed before, this will make it a ‘must have’ to others too)
- Vaultpress
- Videopress
- Space upgrades (wonder how this’ll go with the hosts)
- Premium themes
- Other premium functionality[this is where I get a bit stressed!]
- And all of a sudden Automattic own the premium service (backups, for example), themes and plugins marketplace – heck, if they choose to make it a marketplace, they may just keep it to themselves.
That’s millions, and millions, and millions of $s – and virtual complete control over the WP ecosystem.
It’s like a reverse Apple :)
Although, with Apple, there’s still a meritocracy (unless you are Flash) in that my thinking would initially be “Great! We can list all WPMU DEV plugins there and reach a whole new audience.” But of course, that won’t be the case here, it’ll be invitation only, if at all – like current premium themes.
Which meets Matt’s other requirement (besides the being loved bit) that he retains control – both as founder of ‘mattic, el presidente of the wp foundation, and controller of the marketplace.
And what does this mean for the future of WordPress?
So, at the birth of the automobile industry, there were shed loads of different sorts of cars to choose from – they all looked different and mostly worked differently too, remind anyone of the ‘back in the day’ blog publishing platform competition.
But of course WordPress won that, the same way Henry Ford won the car race (or at least the ‘how it should look’ one), blogging (or web publishing if you will) as powered by WordPress has such a mindshare that and is so entrenched, and is increasing so fast, that there’s really no opportunity or chance for a competitor to get in the door – at least in the foreseeable future.
So, in terms of position, WordPress is more than safe.
And as the majority of core developers now work for Automattic, I think it’s also safe to say that there won’t ever be any real disruption or problems there either.
So what we will be seeing, over the next few years is the evolution of WordPress + Jetpack, with Automattic essentially trying to engineer an Apple style environment for purchases within the platform.
And, as a premium theme or plugin developer, or a WordPress service provider, I reckon it’s about time that you took stock of where you stand in that ecosystem, and planned accordingly.
I know we are.
Resistance is futile. I will obey our wp, google, and apple overlords.
Glad you wrote this. Somebody needed to bring it up.
One thing you guys could do is create better themes. Your biz websites look so nice and follow best practices whereas your themes do not. A number of themes on themeforest, studio press, and solo stream at least have a bit of artistic/design edge to them – though they miss some obvious things like larger font size. Giving people a nice, flexible framework is fine … But then to abandon them to their poor artistic judgment….that’s almost criminal. Hah hah. ooooohhh. Or is that deliberate so they will hire you…now it all makes sense. “a vera nice’a!” – borat
@Sam, we don’t really sell much in the way of themes (more plugins) – but if I was one of the un-anointed theme providers out there I’d be extremely concerned.
More trouble for mr diy thesis… I’m about to take a shot at using network for an NFL kicker’s project and will let you know how that goes.
Drupal 7 looking pretty good right now :D
@paul shudder, but only because acquia are effectively retarded in terms of world domination strategies, compared to ‘mattic. I mean you’ve got to admire ‘em (well, Toni :).
I’m always amused by the people that piggyback off others with their ability to spot a conspiracy theory a million miles off and take the hump at the originators would want to take “their” business.
Surely you would welcome the competition? That is if it’s a level playing field. Of course if it’s isn’t you have the right to complain but you have to accept it’ll always be their rules, right?
This would fly in the face of true open source software but when there’s millions of dollars at stake, some people are always going to tilt the playing field their way.
@Nic, I’m not sure I’d call this a conspiracy theory, it’s just what they are doing / good business :)
Betya any money that nobody from Auto turns up to deny any aspect of this, although of course they’ll read it.
My main concern is that it won’t be a level playing field – as evidenced by current practice. I’d love it if it was though as we have the best and greatest stuff available.
The beauty of it from their perspective is that it completely doesn’t fly in the face of any OS principles, in fact it’s making WP *more* OS (by removing akismet / hello dolly etc.)
So James, in essence you’re feeling a bit like Twitter developers are today? :)
Not really, Twitter (3rd part hosted service) and WP (open source self hosted download) are pretty different… what AM are doing is finding a way round that, which I don’t necessarily like much.
Think the point I was making is that you’ve accelerated the popularity of WP only to see Automattic say in the future “thanks but you can only use our themes, plug-ins, now”.
Not really, even I’m not that paranoid :D
Firstly, I cannot claim to know anything about the broader politics of this debate.
However, I have been thinking for some time that for most people wanting a blogging or CMS platform, WordPress and Drupal have now sped so far ahead of most of the competition that they have each become, to a large degree, the default choice.
For those people who develop plugins/modules and themes and perhaps ask for donations, the same story always seems to apply. A lot of work is put in, the feedback is brilliant and everyone appreciates the lovely new gadget – but nobody wants to pay.
5 000…10 000…50 000 downloads and only one person sent me 5 dollars and I have put in hundreds of hours.
The problem seems to be that the free as in beer part of open source has always led to people thinking – and being able to do so – that they need never pay for anything.
However, once you enter the commercial arena and hope to make money from whatever you add to an open source project, the critical element is that you are operating in the money-making world, where there are no favours, no prisoners and no sentiment.
The old dog-eat-dog jungle conditions and caveats start to apply.
Theoretically, it should be possible for anyone to take the open source WordPress code and get together to set up shop with something which competes with Automattic and finds a way of appealing to enough people with unique bangs and whistles to make them ponder whether to go with Automattic or Brand X.
Which brings us back to market dominance and the hard slog any newcomer faces in trying to gain a foothold in the aggressive world of commerce.
It brings out the best in us all, though, and ensures that we always have the best products available vying for our attention and our hard-earned cash.
So we are always told, anyway.
Funny couple of weeks ago it was “WordPress 3.1 will break a lot of your plugins :/ Unless you are getting them from WPMU DEV!!!” Now you are worried by what is a very innovative product.
I like what Jetpack has done I was hoping that plugin authors like yourself would step up and build services / plugins based on a similar model.
What it really does is exposes the underside of a premium plugin market that continues produce quantity instead of quality. At some point in time something had to happen to reduce all the bloat-ware thats clogging theme/plugin repositories.
Couple of weeks ago you said you could not be blamed for how webmasters implemented your products on their own servers, and you were correct, but, what you could have done was be a bit more responsible about your implementation and deployment processes.
From following your blog for quite awhile I’m positive that if you had created this yourself you would be patting (pounding) yourself on the back for your vision and business savvy.
The huge difference between WP and Apple is that you can create something similar or improve on it and compete against “Matt & his Minions”.
@Atomboy – absolutely, the market shall decide :) Although I have wondered what the definition of monopolistic practices might be here…
@shawn you’re such a troll :D And if we released anything similar on wordpress.org it’d be refused – the reason it’s ‘ok’ (as I explained at length before) is that it’s added on by the hosting providers… an ethically clean set of hands.
Yea I’m (such a troll) :D… you know there was a time on the web when comments were actually used to discuss, exchange and share thoughts / ideas!
Note to self’ stop reading this blog!!!
We’ll miss ya ;)
Great article. A real eye opener that is for sure!
fortunately installing jetpack caused me more problems than help, so after trying to get stats and a few others to work for my needs for about 5 hours, I un-installed it and went back to my previous plugins.
hmm won’t the die hard I’m-not-paying-for-anything developers just find a work around?
Nice article..
Expect wordpress to fork in the future…
Your article is a bit melodramatic, but you do have a point.
It surprises me how many people don’t consider these issues important.
I think you missed the point of the article. If someone is a die hard “I’m not paying for anything” sort of person, then they’re of no interested to commercial developers anyway.
One of the solutions to this would be to support the individual plugins within Jetpack that are most popular.